Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 3.557551 3.877918 4.248637 4.719133 5.316308 6.074711 7.161356
2025-01-12 3.049996 3.420196 3.878105 4.511210 5.413911 6.761573 9.245773
2025-01-19 2.783299 3.174630 3.679071 4.417287 5.563060 7.521762 12.246633
2025-01-26 2.669108 3.095836 3.669337 4.561191 6.089068 9.223026 21.915363
2025-02-02 2.608160 3.073996 3.726186 4.806526 6.878844 12.360440 352.584020
2025-02-09 2.502310 2.976752 3.657246 4.829525 7.256999 15.205943 NaN
2025-02-16 2.419677 2.902966 3.611857 4.879908 7.721238 19.986640 NaN
2025-02-23 2.296290 2.760897 3.446327 4.684614 7.520203 20.924628 NaN
2025-03-02 2.231865 2.699729 3.401271 4.705200 7.891173 28.866184 NaN
2025-03-09 2.168068 2.634863 3.343735 4.691556 8.170111 42.370973 NaN
2025-03-16 2.092550 2.548184 3.243895 4.579887 8.114552 52.947987 NaN
2025-03-23 2.061698 2.526337 3.248062 4.678746 8.793455 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.981053 2.427480 3.120887 4.495328 8.447422 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.904848 2.332886 2.996776 4.309156 8.055153 817.489338 NaN
2025-04-13 1.851061 2.270340 2.923281 4.223898 8.014643 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.836681 2.267022 2.949104 4.354507 8.871558 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.835648 2.283893 3.010500 4.576148 10.392246 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.805727 2.253906 2.987091 4.596859 10.992384 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.780954 2.230895 2.974492 4.642192 11.831080 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.729191 2.163094 2.877377 4.466172 11.096472 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.705032 2.138660 2.858069 4.484765 11.733238 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.678384 2.109246 2.828008 4.472443 12.172164 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.642304 2.063571 2.765996 4.371443 11.856131 NaN NaN